The Spa Dr · WoW Report

Part 2: This Week's Story: What Happened and Why

Ranked by what matters most this week, not by section order. Each card is what moved, what actually caused it (or honestly "not attributable"), and why it matters going into next week.

1

Search Brand got cheaper after we consolidated the brand exact keywords into CPC_Core

WORKED

What moved (CDP). Search Brand spend $522.22 to $363.17 (-30%), orders 24 to 29, ROAS 3.69x to 5.00x, clicks 502 to 419, CPC $1.04 to $0.87, CPA $21.76 to $12.52. Impression share held (CPC_Core 95.4%, lost to rank 4.5%).

What we did (Google Ads API, change_event confirms). Oct 19 15:34 UYT: paused the duplicate spadoctor / thespadoctor [EXACT] keywords in SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core. Oct 22 ~11:40 UYT: paused SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core entirely. Core had served in parallel with CPC_Core since Sep 14 with no trace, and we re-enabled it on Sep 28 without knowing; it was outbidding its manual twin at $6 to $10 per click on the misspellings. Brand exact now lives only in CPC_Core (the August scheme).

Result by campaign. Core spent $229.57 the week before and $45.38 this week (3.5 days live); CPC_Core took over (orders 7 to 17). Together they bought about the same clicks on a quarter less spend:

Campaign (CDP)	Spend	Orders	Revenue	ROAS	Clicks	CPC
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core Oct 12–18	$229.57	7	$372.44	1.62x	116	$1.98
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core Oct 19–25 (paused Oct 22)	$45.38	5	$253.40	5.58x	46	$0.99
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_CPC_Core Oct 12–18	$163.86	7	$880.87	5.38x	205	$0.80
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_CPC_Core Oct 19–25	$247.09	17	$1,048.67	4.24x	279	$0.89
Core + CPC_Core Oct 12–18	$393.43	14	$1,253.31	3.19x	321	$1.23
Core + CPC_Core Oct 19–25	$292.47	22	$1,302.07	4.45x	325	$0.90

The clean read: the three full days after the pause. Oct 23–25 CPC was $0.82 and CPA $11.49 (12 orders on $137.87 and 169 clicks), against $0.89 and $14.67 on the three days before (Oct 19–21). CPC does not depend on the store, so the CPC drop is attributable to the consolidation.

Search Brand (CDP)	Spend	Clicks	CPC	Orders	CPA
Oct 19–21 (before the Core pause)	$176.09	198	$0.89	12	$14.67
Oct 23–25 (after, Oct 25 provisional)	$137.87	169	$0.82	12	$11.49
Measurement rule, Oct 26–Nov 1	–	–	≤ $0.85	–	≤ $12

Honest caveat: part of the order gain is the store recovering (Story #2). Brand acquisition orders went 16 to 13 while returning-customer orders doubled, 8 to 16, so we do not credit the whole order jump to the change. The CPC and the cost per order are the clean signal, not the order count.

ROAS 5.00x is still 37% under the 7.98x plan (the most demanding Search Brand plan in two years). Measurement rules set Oct 22 for the week Oct 26–Nov 1: Search Brand CPC ≤ $0.85, Brand CPA ≤ $12, CPC_Core impression share ≥ 90%. The three clean days already sit inside those thresholds (0.82 / 11.49 / 95.4%), but a 3-day read is not the verdict.

Counterpoint, do not touch: SR_US_BR_SpaDr_CPC_Core now carries all the brand exact traffic (279 clicks, 17 orders). SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Products ran 10.44x on 4 orders (small base) and the ACQ LP Test arm 4.89x on 3 orders.

Verdict: worked, pending formal measurement next week.

2

The store's checkout leak closed part of the way; the original cause is still unconfirmed

PARTIAL RECOVERY

The store-wide control (CDP, all channels, thespadoctor.com): orders fell 8.5% (317 to 290) on 20% less store spend ($55,231 to $44,183), so store ROAS recovered from 0.47 to 0.53. The post-cart leak from last week closed part of the way: orders per initiated checkout 32.2% to 36.2% (back to the low edge of the Sep 28–Oct 11 range, 36.3% to 38.7%), orders per add-to-cart 17.1% to 20.2%, and returning-customer orders 15 to 35 (back above the 28 to 29 baseline). Full tables are in the Store Control Test section below.

Why there are still fewer orders: less traffic. Users fell 15% (27,423 to 23,392) and add-to-carts 23% (1,855 to 1,437), driven by the media cut: Facebook spend $44.6K to $37.7K (-15.5%) and AppLovin $9.5K to $5.7K (-40%). Orders by channel, Oct 12–18 to Oct 19–25: Facebook 228 to 194, AppLovin 49 to 39, Google Search 28 to 34, Rakuten 3 to 19 (its usual range is 14 to 17), Google Shopping 7 to 2, Bing 2 to 2. Of the +20 returning-customer orders, 9 are Rakuten (0 the week before) and 8 are Google Search, so part of the returning recovery is not the checkout.

Google's own funnel (Search + Shopping + Bing): users 834 to 624, add-to-cart rate 13.5% to 16.5%, checkout-start rate 75.2% to 69.9%, orders per checkout 43.5% to 52.8%; orders 37 to 38 (acquisition 23 to 20, returning 14 to 18). Google held its orders on 25% fewer users because more of them converted.

Daily store orders per add-to-cart this week: Oct 19 19.0%, Oct 20 24.5%, Oct 21 14.2%, Oct 22 19.4%, Oct 23 17.4%, Oct 24 22.2%, Oct 25 26.9% (Oct 25 provisional, CDP settles late). Oct 23 was the day with the fewest orders (29, CVR 0.89%); Oct 21 had the lowest orders per add-to-cart (14.2%, CVR 0.83%).

Cause NOT confirmed, neither of the break nor of the recovery. Things seen this week, none proven to be causal: (1) a Datadog alert, "PayPal has no payments created for TSD in the last 16 hours", triggered Oct 24 05:31 UYT and recovered 07:36 UYT, so no PayPal payment from about 13:30 Oct 23 to about 07:30 Oct 24 (consistent with the Oct 23 low day, but PayPal is a small share and the window is overnight: low confidence); (2) storefront deploy storefront-thespadr on Oct 23 19:24 UYT (Copper Peptides homepage, risk green/low, after the Oct 23 dip); (3) the Copper Peptides (GHK-CU) launch on Meta on Oct 23 (one campaign, $1k/day, 2 ad sets of 23 ads, listicle vs quiz funnels); (4) the Oct 16 QA flagged checkout inconsistencies (72% vs 60% discount, 4 timers).

Verdict: partial recovery. Next step unchanged: ask the store, TrafiCheckout and payments teams for TSD's checkout decline rate and any checkout or offer change Oct 12–15. Do not change Google bids to react to a store-side signal.

3

Shopping spend halved and orders fell 7 to 2: a sold-out product plus the planned ceiling cut

VOLUME LOST

What moved. SHP_TSD_US_PPT_ACQ_VOLUME_CBO_WK45 (CDP + live API): spend $174.99 to $86.92 (-50%), clicks 212 to 113, orders 7 to 2, ROAS 3.93x to 1.60x against the 2.85x target (the first miss since September), CPA $43.46, CVR 3.3% to 1.8%. CTR is flat (0.60% to 0.61%) and CPC fell $0.83 to $0.77. Impression share 29.9% to 27.2%, lost to rank 70.0% to 72.7%, lost to budget 0.1%.

Metric	Oct 12–18	Oct 19–25
Impression share (Google Ads API)	29.9%	27.2% (6 of 7 days reported)
Lost to rank	70.0%	72.7%
Impressions	35,431	18,489
Clicks	212	113
CTR	0.60%	0.61%
Avg CPC	$0.83	$0.77
Cost	$174.99	$86.92
Orders (CDP)	7	2
CVR	3.3%	1.8%
CPA (CDP)	$25.00	$43.46
ROAS (CDP, target 2.85x)	3.93x	1.60x

Two things changed in the account. Oct 21 11:44 UYT: ceiling $1.04 to $0.90 (the rule set Oct 12 was met: CTR at or below 0.70% and orders under about 15). Oct 22 11:51 UYT: ad group Serum paused (the Age Defying serum sold out). Split by ad group (spend, clicks, orders and ROAS from CDP; impressions from the Google Ads API; B = Oct 12–18, A = Oct 19–25):

Ad group	Spend B	Spend A	Impr. B	Impr. A	Clicks B	Clicks A	Orders B	Orders A	ROAS B	ROAS A
`Serum` (paused Oct 22)	$76.55	$21.43	15,857	4,618	86	23	3	0	4.13x	0.00x
`Approved_Products`	$98.44	$65.49	19,554	13,867	126	90	4	2	3.78x	2.12x

Serum was 44% of last week's Shopping spend and carried 3 of its 7 orders ($316 revenue, 4.13x); this week it had 0 orders on 23 clicks before the pause. Approved_Products spend fell $98.44 to $65.49 (-33%) and impressions 19,554 to 13,867 (-29%), orders 4 to 2. So roughly 60% of the volume loss (spend, clicks, impressions, orders) is the sold-out serum ad group; the rest is the ceiling cut working as intended (CPC down, and part of the +6.4 points of impression share since Oct 6 given back: we kept a little over half).

Two orders cannot separate the ceiling from noise: one order is half of this week's ROAS (about 0.8x of 1.60x). Do not touch anything mid-week.

Measurement rule set Oct 22 for the week Oct 26–Nov 1: Shopping CPA ≤ $12 and at least 10 orders; if CPA is above $15 or there are fewer than 10 orders, lower the ceiling to $0.80 on Nov 2. At this week's rate (CPA $43, 2 orders) it would trigger, but this week was a transition (serum gone, ceiling changed mid-week): Oct 26–Nov 1 is the first clean read. Budget is not the wall ($100/day, 0.1% lost to budget; the wall is rank).

The Merchant Center token is still dead (since Oct 5), so the feed and disapproval side stays unchecked (last check Sep 25: 18.5% of the catalog disapproved).

Verdict: volume lost, mostly a product that sold out plus the ceiling cut we planned. Too small a base to judge the ceiling.

4

Search NB (Reviews) misses its ROAS target for the second week; no rule triggered

WATCH

SR_US_NB_SpaDr_Reviews: ROAS 1.70x to 1.48x against the 1.98x target (-25.5%), the second miss in a row; orders 4 to 5; spend $271.39 to $213.35 (-21%, 47% under plan); CPA $42.67 against a $27.61 target.

Media: clicks 121 to 98, impressions 933 to 766 (-18%), CTR 13.0% to 12.8%, CPC $2.24 to $2.18, impression share 85.9% to 88.3% (lost to rank 11.5%). Fewer queries at a higher impression share points to demand, not bidding: consistent with the store's media cut (fewer people exposed to paid social, so fewer "reviews" searches), a hypothesis and not proven. The conversion side improved: CVR 3.3% to 5.1%, add-to-cart rate 13.2% to 20.2% (the store recovery shows here too).

The rules from the Oct 22 changelog. (a) Lower tCPA from $80 to $65 only if Oct 19–25 closes with fewer than 4 CDP orders: it closed with 5, so the condition is NOT met and tCPA stays at $80, no change. (b) Last week's recommendation to pause the spa dr reviews [EXACT] is withdrawn: re-audited with kw_st_audit (30 days, Sep 26–Oct 25) it sits at $37.21 on 17 clicks and 0 conversions, below the $50 Bleeding Rule threshold and flagged INSUFFICIENT_DATA. Keep watching. The audit returned zero actionable keywords or negatives for CPC_Core, Reviews and Shopping.

NB converters, do not touch (platform, directional, 30 days, ad group HairSerum_Reviews): the spa dr hair serum reviews 25 conversions, $628, 2.46x; the spa doctor hair serum reviews 6 conversions, 1.97x; spa dr hair serum reviews 5 conversions, 4.90x.

Verdict: watch. Second ROAS miss, demand-limited and not bidding-limited; the tCPA rule was not triggered and the Bleeding Rule is no longer met. Do not touch NB bidding or tCPA.

5

The Age Defying Serum A/B test is dead because the product sold out: decide whether to end the experiment now

CLOSED, UNREADABLE

Experiment 10061722872 is ENABLED, scheduled Oct 6 to Nov 3: control campaign 22380102158 (SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Products, PDP) vs treatment campaign 24331097227 (SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Products ACQ LP Test, advertorial LP). On Oct 21 15:09 UYT we paused Age_Defying_Serum_EX in both arms because the serum is out of stock (Juanma's instruction). Final tally for the tested ad group, Oct 6–25: control 9 clicks and 1 order ($13.24 spend), treatment 6 clicks and 2 orders ($4.58). That is never a result.

CDP, Oct 6–25 (20 days)	Control (PDP)	Treatment (advertorial)
Tested ad group `Age_Defying_Serum_EX`: clicks / orders	9 / 1	6 / 2
Tested ad group: spend / revenue	$13.24 / $61.98	$4.58 / $134.08
Five identical ad groups: clicks / orders	189 / 12	185 / 10
Five identical ad groups: spend / revenue / ROAS	$117.10 / $856.99 / 7.32x	$141.70 / $949.32 / 6.70x
Identical ad groups, week by week (ROAS)	4.06x, 7.44x, 11.34x	11.82x, 4.84x, 4.26x
Arm total, week by week (ROAS)	5.37x, 6.25x, 10.44x	14.10x, 4.66x, 4.89x
Arm total: orders / revenue / ROAS	13 / $918.97 / 7.05x	12 / $1,083.40 / 7.41x

The arm totals (control 13 orders, $919, 7.05x; treatment 12 orders, $1,083, 7.41x) come from the five identical ad groups, that is chance, and must not be read as a landing-page result. Week by week the identical groups flipped (treatment 11.82x, 4.84x, 4.26x; control 4.06x, 7.44x, 11.34x).

Recommendation (pending OK): end the experiment now and plan a rebuild on the Hair Serum ad group (about 20x the traffic), timed with the Copper Peptides (GHK-CU) serum, which launched on Meta on Oct 23. The Google side of that launch is not planned yet.

Verdict: closed, unreadable. Do not declare a winner from either arm.

6

Bing Search Brand: same small-base swing, same call

NOISE

Oct 18–24 vs Oct 11–17: spend $66.05 vs $64.73, orders 2 vs 3, ROAS 3.22x vs 3.96x. All of it sits in CPC_Core (40 clicks, CPC $1.54). No Bing target exists (N/D, not fabricated).

Verdict: noise, same small-base swing, same call. No action.

Store Control Test, follow-up: partial recovery (thespadoctor.com, all channels, CDP)

Follow-up to last week's finding that the whole store converted worse after the cart. CDP query 2635 with source_category ALL, 5 weeks, Mon–Sun. Oct 25 is provisional (CDP events settle late).

Five-week store funnel

Week	Orders	Store spend	Users	ATC rate	IC / ATC	Orders / IC	Returning orders	Store ROAS
Sep 21–27	423	$59,548	28,646	7.0%	56.1%	37.5%	28	0.56
Sep 28–Oct 4	449	$57,970	26,990	7.8%	58.5%	36.3%	29	0.61
Oct 5–11	411	$55,425	26,982	6.8%	57.5%	38.7%	29	0.61
Oct 12–18	317	$55,231	27,423	6.8%	53.2%	32.2%	15	0.47
Oct 19–25	290	$44,183	23,392	6.1%	55.7%	36.2%	35	0.53

ATC rate = add-to-carts / users. IC / ATC = checkout starts / add-to-carts. Orders / IC = orders / checkout starts. Store spend is all channels; store ROAS = store revenue / store spend.

Orders and spend by channel

Channel (CDP)	Orders Oct 12–18	Orders Oct 19–25	Change	Spend Oct 12–18	Spend Oct 19–25
Facebook	228	194	-14.9%	$44,625	$37,704
AppLovin	49	39	-20.4%	$9,521	$5,698
Google Search	28	34	+21.4%	$794	$577
Rakuten	3	19	+533.3%	$50	$45
Google Shopping	7	2	-71.4%	$175	$87
Bing	2	2	+0.0%	$66	$72
Store total	317	290	-8.5%	$55,231	$44,183

Store vs Google paid funnel

Funnel step	Store Oct 12–18	Store Oct 19–25	Google paid Oct 12–18	Google paid Oct 19–25
Users	27,423	23,392	834	624
ATC rate (add-to-carts / users)	6.8%	6.1%	13.5%	16.5%
IC / ATC (checkout starts / add-to-carts)	53.2%	55.7%	75.2%	69.9%
Orders / IC (orders / checkout starts)	32.2%	36.2%	43.5%	52.8%
Orders	317	290	37	38
Orders: acquisition / returning	302 / 15	255 / 35	23 / 14	20 / 18

Read: the post-cart leak closed part of the way, and the week is smaller because the media was cut

Orders fell 8.5% on 20% less store spend, so store ROAS recovered from 0.47 to 0.53. Orders per initiated checkout went from 32.2% to 36.2% (the low edge of the 36.3% to 38.7% range of Sep 28–Oct 11), orders per add-to-cart from 17.1% to 20.2%, and returning-customer orders from 15 to 35 (the baseline was 28 to 29). The week still has fewer orders because it had less traffic: users -15%, add-to-carts -23%, driven by Facebook (-15.5% spend) and AppLovin (-40%).

Google paid held its orders (37 to 38) on 25% fewer users because more of them converted: add-to-cart rate 13.5% to 16.5% and orders per checkout 43.5% to 52.8%. Google Search orders rose 28 to 34 while Google Shopping fell 7 to 2 (Story #3). Rakuten went 3 to 19, above its usual 14 to 17: of the +20 returning-customer orders, 9 are Rakuten (0 the week before) and 8 are Google Search, so part of the returning recovery is not the checkout.

Cause not confirmed, neither of the break nor of the recovery. Seen this week, none proven causal: the PayPal "no payments" alert (Oct 24 05:31–07:36 UYT), the storefront deploy of Oct 23 19:24 UYT (Copper Peptides homepage), the Copper Peptides launch on Meta (Oct 23) and the Oct 16 QA findings (72% vs 60% discount, 4 timers). Next step unchanged: ask the store, TrafiCheckout and payments teams for TSD's checkout decline rate and any checkout or offer change Oct 12–15.

Google + Bing CDP Account Overview: Core Paid (Oct 19–25)

Spend

$729

-29.4% WoW

Revenue (CDP)

$2,484

-25.5% WoW

Orders (CDP)

38

+0.0% WoW

ROAS

3.40x

+5.5% WoW

CPA

$19.20

-29.4% WoW

AOV

$65.36

-25.5% WoW

CPC

$1.07

-7.5% WoW

CTR

3.14%

+40.1% WoW

Scope: Search Brand + Search NB + Shopping Brand + Bing Search Brand (Bing on its Sun–Sat week). PMax, Demand Gen and YouTube stayed at $0 this week and last. Same 38 orders on 29% less spend, so CPA fell 29% ($27.19 to $19.20) and ROAS rose (3.23x to 3.40x). AOV fell ($87.78 to $65.36) because last week's small base carried a few large baskets (CPC_Core $125.84, Search NB $115.47, Shopping $98.27); revenue fell 25.5% on flat orders for that reason. CTR rose (2.24% to 3.14%) on mix, not on ad quality: Shopping impressions fell 48% (35,431 to 18,489) at about 0.6% CTR, while Search CTRs were flat (Search Brand 26.9% to 26.9%, NB 13.0% to 12.8%). CPC eased ($1.16 to $1.07) as Search Brand CPC fell from $1.04 to $0.87.

7-Week Trend: All Channels Blended (incl. Bing, same Mon–Sun window)

Sep 7 → Oct 19–25 (week starts shown)

▪ Spend $ (left)▬ ROAS (right)

▪ Revenue $ (left)▬ Orders (right)

Orders were 38 vs 37 last week: flat, and still below the 55 to 70 range of Sep 7–Oct 11. Spend of $736 is the lowest of the 7 weeks (it was $2,039 on Sep 7–13), so ROAS recovered to 3.38x from 3.12x but is not back to the 4.0x to 4.4x plateau of Sep 14–Oct 11. Revenue $2,484 vs $3,224 (-23.0%) on spend $736 vs $1,035 (-28.9%): the week was cheaper, not bigger. Same story as Part 1, in chart form: the account is spending less per order while the volume stays at the lower level set by the store-wide break of Oct 12 (Story #2). The trend uses the same Mon–Sun window for Bing as for Google, so it differs slightly from the Sun–Sat Bing window of the headline (spend $729, 38 orders).

WoW Comparison: All Channels vs Targets

Segment	Spend			Orders (CDP)			Revenue (CDP)			ROAS			CPA			Target ROAS / CPA
Segment	B	A	WoW	B	A	WoW	B	A	WoW	B	A	WoW	B	A	WoW	Target ROAS / CPA
Search Brand	$522	$363	-30.5%	24	29	+20.8%	$1,929	$1,817	-5.8%	3.69x	5.00x	+35.4%	$21.76	$12.52	-42.4%	7.98x / $6.98
Search NB	$271	$213	-21.4%	4	5	+25.0%	$462	$315	-31.8%	1.70x	1.48x	-13.3%	$67.85	$42.67	-37.1%	1.98x / $27.61
Shopping Brand	$175	$87	-50.3%	7	2	-71.4%	$688	$139	-79.8%	3.93x	1.60x	-59.3%	$25.00	$43.46	+73.8%	2.85x / $16.25
Bing Search Brand	$65	$66	+2.0%	3	2	-33.3%	$257	$213	-17.0%	3.96x	3.22x	-18.7%	$21.58	$33.02	+53.1%	N/D
Blended (Google only, 3 segs)	$969	$663	-31.5%	35	36	+2.9%	$3,079	$2,271	-26.3%	3.18x	3.42x	+7.7%	$27.67	$18.43	-33.4%	4.77x / $11.36
Core Paid Blended (incl. Bing)	$1,033	$729	-29.4%	38	38	+0.0%	$3,336	$2,484	-25.5%	3.23x	3.40x	+5.5%	$27.19	$19.20	-29.4%	–
All Google + Bing	$1,033	$729	-29.4%	38	38	+0.0%	$3,336	$2,484	-25.5%	3.23x	3.40x	+5.5%	$27.19	$19.20	-29.4%	–

B = Oct 12–18 · A = Oct 19–25 (Bing and the two Bing-inclusive rows use Bing's own Sun–Sat week: Oct 11–17 / Oct 18–24, see header). Spend WoW is grey: a rise or fall is not good or bad on its own. CPA WoW is inverted (a fall is green). ROAS and CPA in the A column are coloured against target, not against last week. "All Google + Bing" equals "Core Paid Blended" because PMax, Demand Gen and YouTube are $0 in both weeks.

Plan vs actual, volume (Google only)

Segment	Spend			Revenue (CDP)			Orders (CDP)
Segment	Plan	Actual	vs plan	Plan	Actual	vs plan	Plan	Actual	vs plan
Search Brand	$493	$363	-26.3%	$3,935	$1,817	-53.8%	71	29	-59.2%
Search NB	$404	$213	-47.2%	$799	$315	-60.6%	15	5	-66.7%
Shopping Brand	$237	$87	-63.3%	$677	$139	-79.5%	15	2	-86.7%
Blended (Google only)	$1,135	$663	-41.5%	$5,411	$2,271	-58.0%	100	36	-64.0%

Plan vs actual, efficiency (Google only)

Segment	ROAS			CPA			AOV
Segment	Plan	Actual	vs plan	Plan	Actual	vs plan	Plan	Actual	vs plan
Search Brand	7.98x	5.00x	-37.3%	$6.98	$12.52	+79.4%	$55.71	$62.65	+12.4%
Search NB	1.98x	1.48x	-25.5%	$27.61	$42.67	+54.5%	$54.55	$62.98	+15.5%
Shopping Brand	2.85x	1.60x	-43.9%	$16.25	$43.46	+167.4%	$46.37	$69.48	+49.8%
Blended (Google only)	4.77x	3.42x	-28.3%	$11.36	$18.43	+62.2%	$54.17	$63.07	+16.4%

Targets for Search Brand, Search NB and Shopping Brand come from the team's planning sheet ("Beauty Acquisition Weekly forecast & Targets", tab "Google channels" Oct 2026v1), column Wk 43 (October daily plan × 7). October's plan is flat daily values, so Wk 43 equals Wk 42. Bing Search Brand has no row in that sheet (N/D, not fabricated). The Blended (Google only) row is the exact scope of the sheet's target; Core Paid Blended and All Google + Bing include Bing and have no matching target, so they are shown WoW only.

Reading the volume miss. Spend is 41.5% under plan, so the orders miss (64%) is mostly volume: we bought 58% of the planned spend. ROAS is the clean bar. The plan's AOV (about $54) is now below actual by a smaller gap ($54.17 implied vs $63.07 produced) than in the prior three weeks, so the order target is less structurally unreachable than before, but still far.

Campaign Breakdown: Google Ads

🔵 Google Ads

Impression Share Snapshot (live pull, Oct 26)

Campaign	IS	Avg CPC	Clicks	Read
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core	–	$0.99	46	Paused Oct 22 (3.5 days live this week): no impression share to read. Brand exact now lives only in CPC_Core (Story #1).
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_CPC_Core	95.4%	$0.89	279	Carries all brand exact; lost to rank 4.5%. Leave bids alone.
SR_US_NB_SpaDr_Reviews	88.3%	$2.18	98	IS 85.9% last week (lost to rank 11.5%): fewer queries at higher IS, demand-limited and not rank-limited.
SHP_TSD_US_PPT_ACQ_VOLUME_CBO_WK45	27.2%	$0.77	113	6 of 7 days reported (Oct 25 not yet reported by Google). Lost to rank 72.7%, lost to budget 0.1%, $100/day. Ceiling $0.90 since Oct 21.

Impression share, CPC and clicks are Google Ads API for the campaigns shown (CPC and clicks for Core are CDP). IS for the low-volume Products and Modifiers campaigns was not pulled this week.

Search Brand Core · CPC_Core · Modifiers · Products (control + treatment)

Status as of Oct 26: SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core is paused (Oct 22) and CPC_Core carries all brand exact. Experiment 10061722872 is ENABLED (Oct 6 to Nov 3) but its tested ad group Age_Defying_Serum_EX is paused in both arms (Oct 21). change_event Oct 19–25: 5 manual API changes, zero automated-rule rows.

Segment Summary: CDP

Week	Spend	Orders (CDP)	Rev (CDP)	ROAS	CPA	CVR	AOV	CPC	Clicks
Oct 12–18	$522.22	24	$1,929.16	3.69x	$21.76	4.78%	$80.38	$1.04	502
Oct 19–25	$363.17	29	$1,816.72	5.00x	$12.52	6.92%	$62.65	$0.87	419

Campaign Breakdown: CDP

Campaign	Spend Oct12–18	Spend Oct19–25	WoW	Ord B	Ord A	Rev Oct12–18	Rev Oct19–25	WoW	ROAS B	ROAS A	CPA A
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core (paused Oct 22)	$229.57	$45.38	-80.2%	7	5	$372.44	$253.40	-32.0%	1.62x	5.58x	$9.08
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_CPC_Core	$163.86	$247.09	+50.8%	7	17	$880.87	$1,048.67	+19.0%	5.38x	4.24x	$14.53
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Products (experiment control)	$55.17	$33.60	-39.1%	6	4	$344.92	$350.70	+1.7%	6.25x	10.44x	$8.40
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Products (experiment treatment, ACQ LP Test)	$70.98	$33.55	-52.7%	4	3	$330.93	$163.95	-50.5%	4.66x	4.89x	$11.18
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Modifiers	$2.64	$3.55	+34.5%	0	0	$0.00	$0.00	–	0.00x	0.00x	–

The two Products rows are the A/B experiment arms (control and treatment, told apart by campaign id). Combined this week: $67.15 spend, 7 orders, $514.65 revenue, 7.66x ROAS; the experiment itself is closed and unreadable (Story #5).

Root Cause: the consolidation cut the cost, the store helped the orders

Segment ROAS 3.69x to 5.00x (+35.4%) against a 7.98x target (-37.3%), orders 24 to 29, spend -30% on 17% fewer clicks (502 to 419). The in-account lever worked: pausing the parallel Core campaign cut CPC from $1.04 to $0.87 and CPA from $21.76 to $12.52 (Story #1). Part of the order gain is the store recovering (Story #2), so CPC and CPA are the clean signal. CPC_Core (4.24x on 17 orders at $0.89) now carries all brand exact: do not touch. Measurement rules for Oct 26–Nov 1: CPC ≤ $0.85, CPA ≤ $12, CPC_Core impression share ≥ 90%.

Search NB SR_US_NB_SpaDr_Reviews

Week	Spend	Orders (CDP)	Rev (CDP)	ROAS	CPA	CVR	AOV	CPC	Clicks
Oct 12–18	$271.39	4	$461.86	1.70x	$67.85	3.31%	$115.47	$2.24	121
Oct 19–25	$213.35	5	$314.91	1.48x	$42.67	5.10%	$62.98	$2.18	98

Read: second ROAS miss, demand-limited, no rule triggered

ROAS 1.48x vs the 1.98x target (-25.5%); spend 47% under plan; orders 5 vs 15 planned; CPA $42.67 vs $27.61. Impression share rose (85.9% to 88.3%) while clicks fell (121 to 98) and CTR held (12.8%): fewer queries, not a bidding problem. The Oct 22 tCPA rule was not triggered (5 orders vs the 4-order line), so tCPA stays at $80, and the spa dr reviews [EXACT] is no longer a Bleeding Rule case (30 days: $37.21, 17 clicks, 0 conversions, below $50): the pause recommendation is withdrawn. Do not touch NB bidding or tCPA.

Shopping Brand SHP_TSD_US_PPT_ACQ_VOLUME_CBO_WK45

Week	Spend	Orders (CDP)	Rev (CDP)	ROAS	CPA	CVR	AOV	CPC	Clicks
Oct 12–18	$174.99	7	$687.90	3.93x	$25.00	3.30%	$98.27	$0.83	212
Oct 19–25	$86.92	2	$138.96	1.60x	$43.46	1.77%	$69.48	$0.77	113

Root Cause: a sold-out ad group plus the planned ceiling cut; too small to judge

Spend $174.99 to $86.92, clicks 212 to 113, CDP orders 7 to 2 and ROAS 3.93x to 1.60x, -43.9% against the 2.85x target (CPA $43.46 vs $16.25). About 60% of the volume loss is the ad group Serum (sold out, paused Oct 22); the rest is the $1.04 to $0.90 ceiling (Oct 21) working as intended: CPC $0.83 to $0.77, impression share 29.9% to 27.2%. Two orders cannot separate the ceiling from noise. Nothing to change mid-week: the first clean read is Oct 26–Nov 1 (CPA ≤ $12 and at least 10 orders, else $0.80 on Nov 2). Budget is not the wall (0.1% lost to budget at $100/day). Full working in Story #3.

Campaign Breakdown: Microsoft Ads

🟦 Microsoft Ads

Bing reports Sun–Sat: Week A = Oct 18–24, Week B = Oct 11–17.

Bing Search Brand CPC_Core · Modifiers · Products

Segment Summary: CDP

Week	Spend	Orders (CDP)	Rev (CDP)	ROAS	CPA	CVR	AOV	CPC	Clicks
Oct 11–17	$64.73	3	$256.58	3.96x	$21.58	5.26%	$85.53	$1.14	57
Oct 18–24	$66.05	2	$212.97	3.22x	$33.02	3.92%	$106.48	$1.30	51

Campaign Breakdown: CDP

Campaign	Spend Oct11–17	Spend Oct18–24	WoW	Ord B	Ord A	Rev Oct11–17	Rev Oct18–24	WoW	ROAS B	ROAS A	CPA A
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_CPC_Core	$47.24	$61.70	+30.6%	3	2	$256.58	$212.97	-17.0%	5.43x	3.45x	$30.85
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Products	$14.03	$2.21	-84.2%	0	0	$0.00	$0.00	–	0.00x	0.00x	–
SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Modifiers	$3.46	$2.14	-38.2%	0	0	$0.00	$0.00	–	0.00x	0.00x	–

Read: same small-base swing, same call

Orders 3 to 2, ROAS 3.96x to 3.22x on $66.05 of spend (vs $64.73). CPC_Core carries the segment (40 clicks, CPC $1.54 vs $1.31); Products spent $2.21 (vs $14.03) with no order. No Bing-specific change was made (bid, budget or negative keyword) and no Bing target exists (N/D, not fabricated). No action.

Google Demand Gen (Discovery): `DGEN_US_NB_TSD_HairSerum_Discovery`

Status: PAUSED, unchanged. $0 spend this week and last per CDP, consistent with the 2026-09-11 pause confirmed live in prior reports. PMax and the legacy YouTube campaigns also stayed at $0. Recommendation unchanged: keep it paused; if revisited (for example around the GHK-CU serum launch), treat it as a new test (different targeting, creative and landing page, capped daily budget) rather than re-enabling the settings that produced its lifetime record.

Feed & Account Hygiene

✓ Confirmed done, no action needed

Shopping impression-share reporting is back for 6 of 7 days (Oct 19–24); Oct 25 is not yet reported by Google, the usual lag.
change_event is back to hand-made changes only: 5 manual API changes for Oct 19–25 and zero automated-rule rows, versus 23 rows of the automated keyword-bid rule last week.
Keyword and search-term audit (kw_st_audit, 30 days Sep 26–Oct 25): zero actionable keywords or negatives for CPC_Core, Reviews and Shopping.

⚠ Still blocked or open

Merchant Center refresh token: still dead since Oct 5, so the feed and disapproval side stays unchecked. Last check (Sep 25) showed 18.5% of the catalog disapproved. Same open access gap as every prior week (see Next Steps).
Three automated keyword-bid rules (created by a former employee, running nightly at 1:25) still have no owner. They produced zero rows this week.

Change Timeline

Last week (Oct 12–18)

Oct 12–13: automated bid rule on Products and Modifiers (23 change_event rows).
Oct 15: strategy review published (thespadr-strategy-review.pages.dev).
No manual change.

This week (Oct 19–25), all Google Ads API

Oct 19 15:34 UYT: paused the duplicate spadoctor / thespadoctor [EXACT] in Core.
Oct 21 11:44 UYT: Shopping CPC ceiling $1.04 to $0.90.
Oct 21 15:09 UYT: Age_Defying_Serum_EX paused in both A/B arms (serum out of stock).
Oct 22 ~11:40 UYT: SR_US_BR_SpaDr_Core paused (back to the August scheme: brand exact only in CPC_Core).
Oct 22 11:51 UYT: Shopping ad group Serum paused (serum out of stock).
Oct 22, report side: Google CPA proposal published; tCPA conditional rule recorded in the changelog.
Store side, not Google, for context: Oct 23 19:24 UYT storefront deploy (Copper Peptides homepage); Oct 23 Copper Peptides launch on Meta; Oct 24 05:31 to 07:36 UYT PayPal "no payments" alert.

Today (Oct 26): nothing new proposed

Nothing is proposed that is not already in Next Steps.
Pending: end the serum A/B (OK needed) and the CPC_Core bid-adjustment rule in the UI.
Nov 2: read the Oct 26–Nov 1 measurement rules (Brand, Shopping, Google).

Channel Spend & Revenue Mix: Core Paid (Oct 19–25)

Spend Share

Search Brand49.8%$363

Search NB29.2%$213

Shopping Brand11.9%$87

Bing Search Brand9.1%$66

Revenue Share (CDP)

Search Brand73.1%$1,817

Search NB12.7%$315

Shopping Brand5.6%$139

Bing Search Brand8.6%$213

Excludes PMax, Demand Gen and YouTube ($0 in both weeks, paused): they would add nothing to the chart.

Read

Search Brand's revenue share (73.1%) runs well ahead of its spend share (49.8%), and Search NB's revenue share (12.7%) sits well under its spend share (29.2%), the mix signature of its second ROAS miss (Story #4). Shopping's revenue share (5.6%) is under its spend share (11.9%), consistent with its ROAS miss (1.60x vs 2.85x) (Story #3). Google Search + Shopping + Bing = $729 of the store's $44,183 spend (1.7%) and 38 of its 290 orders (13.1%).

Do Not Touch

⚠ These items must not be modified without explicit sign-off

SR_US_BR_SpaDr_CPC_Core (now carries all brand exact; 4.24x on 17 orders, $0.89 CPC): leave bids alone.
Shopping budget ($100/day, 0.1% lost to budget): the wall is rank and CPC, not budget. Also the $0.90 ceiling, untouched until the Nov 2 read.
Search NB tCPA ($80) and bidding (rule not triggered, IS 88%, demand-limited).
NB converters in HairSerum_Reviews (the spa dr hair serum reviews 25 conversions, 2.46x) and the brand exact keywords in CPC_Core Exact_Match (spa dr 12.25x on 19 conversions, the spa doctor 7.04x on 18.6, thespadr 5.81x on 9; platform, directional, 30 days).
Any Google bid change aimed at the store-wide conversion movement. It is a store problem, not a bidding problem.

Next Steps

1

On Nov 2, read the measurement rules for Oct 26–Nov 1 HIGH

Search Brand: CPC ≤ $0.85, CPA ≤ $12, CPC_Core impression share ≥ 90%. Shopping: CPA ≤ $12 and at least 10 orders (else ceiling to $0.80 on Nov 2). Google: CPA ≤ $15 and orders per add-to-cart ≥ 45%.

2

Serum A/B: end the experiment and plan the Hair Serum rebuild (pending OK) HIGH

The serum is sold out and the test is unreadable (Story #5). Plan the rebuild on the Hair Serum ad group (about 20x the traffic), timed with the GHK-CU launch; the Google side of that launch is not planned yet.

3

Store team: TSD checkout decline rate and any checkout or offer change Oct 12–15; PayPal alert Oct 24 MEDIUM

The break and the partial recovery are both unexplained (Story #2). Ask the store, TrafiCheckout and payments teams. Do not change Google bids to react to a store-side signal.

4

CPC_Core bid-adjustment rule in the UI (pending, owner Juan) MEDIUM

Still pending from the Oct 22 plan. CPC_Core now carries all brand exact, so it is the campaign the rule matters for.

5

Month boundary Nov 1: add the November tab to TARGETS_SHEET_TABS and re-check the plan granularity MEDIUM

For the daily report. October's plan was flat daily values (Wk 43 equals Wk 42); check whether November is weekly or daily before the next WoW.

6

Re-mint the Merchant Center token LOW

Run get_merchant_refresh_token.py (browser-based); blocked since Oct 5 (last check Sep 25: 18.5% of the catalog disapproved).

7

Owner for the 3 automated bid rules; define a Bing target CARRY

The rules were created by a former employee and run nightly at 1:25 (zero rows this week). Bing still has no row in the targets sheet.

The Spa Dr · Weekly Performance Report Caution

The whole week, in one screen

Part 2: This Week's Story: What Happened and Why

Store Control Test, follow-up: partial recovery (thespadoctor.com, all channels, CDP)

Five-week store funnel

Orders and spend by channel

Store vs Google paid funnel

Google + Bing CDP Account Overview: Core Paid (Oct 19–25)

7-Week Trend: All Channels Blended (incl. Bing, same Mon–Sun window)

WoW Comparison: All Channels vs Targets

Plan vs actual, volume (Google only)

Plan vs actual, efficiency (Google only)

Campaign Breakdown: Google Ads

Impression Share Snapshot (live pull, Oct 26)

Segment Summary: CDP

Campaign Breakdown: CDP

Campaign Breakdown: Microsoft Ads

Segment Summary: CDP

Campaign Breakdown: CDP

Google Demand Gen (Discovery): `DGEN_US_NB_TSD_HairSerum_Discovery`

Feed & Account Hygiene

✓ Confirmed done, no action needed

⚠ Still blocked or open

Change Timeline

Last week (Oct 12–18)

This week (Oct 19–25), all Google Ads API

Today (Oct 26): nothing new proposed

Channel Spend & Revenue Mix: Core Paid (Oct 19–25)

Spend Share

Revenue Share (CDP)

Do Not Touch

Next Steps

The Spa Dr · Weekly Performance Report Caution

The whole week, in one screen

Part 2: This Week's Story: What Happened and Why

Store Control Test, follow-up: partial recovery (thespadoctor.com, all channels, CDP)

Five-week store funnel

Orders and spend by channel

Store vs Google paid funnel

Google + Bing CDP Account Overview: Core Paid (Oct 19–25)

7-Week Trend: All Channels Blended (incl. Bing, same Mon–Sun window)

WoW Comparison: All Channels vs Targets

Plan vs actual, volume (Google only)

Plan vs actual, efficiency (Google only)

Campaign Breakdown: Google Ads

Impression Share Snapshot (live pull, Oct 26)

Segment Summary: CDP

Campaign Breakdown: CDP

Campaign Breakdown: Microsoft Ads

Segment Summary: CDP

Campaign Breakdown: CDP

Google Demand Gen (Discovery): DGEN_US_NB_TSD_HairSerum_Discovery

Feed & Account Hygiene

✓ Confirmed done, no action needed

⚠ Still blocked or open

Change Timeline

Last week (Oct 12–18)

This week (Oct 19–25), all Google Ads API

Today (Oct 26): nothing new proposed

Channel Spend & Revenue Mix: Core Paid (Oct 19–25)

Spend Share

Revenue Share (CDP)

Do Not Touch

Next Steps

Google Demand Gen (Discovery): `DGEN_US_NB_TSD_HairSerum_Discovery`